Caps, lotteries, and the green-card clog

65,000 regular + 20,000 U.S. master’s. USCIS selected 120,141 registrations to fill the cap after expected drop-off. FY2027 switches to wage-weighted selection.

Covers

Jobs that normally need a bachelor’s: software, engineering, some finance, physicians, analysts.

Misses

Home health aides, most nurses’ aides, trades, hospitality, retail, trucking, farm labor.

Processing

~3.4 months (I-129); 15-day premium

USCIS FY2026 H-1B registration statistics

33,000 per half-year by statute. Employers filed 10,062 applications covering 162,603 workers for April 2026 start dates. DHS/DOL added 64,716 supplemental visas for FY2026 — still well below filings.

Covers

Peak-season landscaping, hospitality, construction, seafood, recreation.

Misses

Year-round need in the same industries. The cap is a lottery against landscapers, hotels, and builders at once.

Processing

DOL TLC, then I-129 (~premium available)

DOL OFLC H-2B assignment groups; DHS/DOL FY2026 supplemental rule

No numerical cap. Certification still requires housing, AEWR wages, and a failed U.S. recruitment run. First year more than 400,000 workers were requested.

Covers

Seasonal farm, ranch, and some packing work.

Misses

Year-round livestock and dairy are a poorer fit. Processing, housing, and transportation remain the friction — not a visa ceiling.

Processing

DOL TLC, then USCIS petition

DOL OFLC / American Farm Bureau FY2025 H-2A tallies

Per-country cap of 7% collides with demand from India and China. NFAP (2026): new India EB-2 filings face a modeled wait on the order of a century; EB-2 India and EB-5 India were unavailable on recent visa bulletins.

Covers

Permanent residence for skilled and professional workers already here on H-1B, L-1, and similar.

Misses

The temporary-visa pipeline has nowhere to land. People stay in status for decades or leave.

Processing

PERM ~12–14 months; I-140 ~8 months; then the bulletin

INA numerical limits; NFAP backlog analysis 2026; USCIS EB inventory reports